Edge of Knowledge — Canonical Stress-Test
Epistemic Failure in Medical Discovery
How high-confidence error forms, persists, and reveals itself too late.
Non-actionable · Exposure only · No intervention logic
Stress-Test Invocation
This stress-test activates under:
- High model agreement
- Strong internal validation
- Weak external grounding
- Institutional momentum resisting reassessment
Failure Progression Stages
Phase A — Hidden Assumptions
Confidence rests on unexamined premises.
Failure trigger: assumptions remain implicit.
Phase B — Counterfactual Reality
Alternate worlds exist where the system is wrong but appears correct.
Failure trigger: plausibility of unseen contradictions.
Phase C — Error Persistence
Error survives validation, replication, and peer review.
Failure mechanism: incentives + pipelines reinforce the same mistake.
Phase D — Late Revelation
Failure emerges indirectly and ambiguously.
Signal: delayed contradiction, not clean invalidation.
Phase E — Lock-In
System cannot reverse course without prohibitive cost.
State: recognition occurs after optionality is lost.
Failure Characteristics
- Confidence remains high throughout
- Error is structurally reinforced
- Correction arrives too late
- Failure is non-categorical and difficult to isolate
Output Constraints
- No prescriptions
- No interventions
- No optimization paths
- Exposure only
Stress-Test Judgment
The system fails not when confidence collapses—but when it remains high beyond the point of correction.
Canonical · Stress-Test · Non-actionable · Versioned