Edge of PracticeShort-Cycle FalsificationTemporal Boundary

Temporal Persistence of Viral Viability on Indoor Surfaces

Surface contamination is admissible as short-lived only if viral infectivity reliably decays within assumed time windows under ordinary indoor conditions. If persistence exceeds these windows, temporal decay assumptions are invalid.

Core Doctrine

Safety assumptions fail when time is underestimated. If viability persists longer than assumed, risk is misclassified.

Tested Assumption

Viral viability decays rapidly on surfaces

The governing assumption is that viruses deposited on common indoor materials lose infectivity within a short, predictable time window.

Structural Failure

Decay is surface- and condition-dependent

Viral persistence may vary significantly across material type, humidity, temperature, and micro-environmental conditions.

This creates divergence between assumed decay timelines and actual viability duration.

Governing Variable

Persistence window under real conditions

The governing variable is not initial contamination but the duration over which infectious viability remains detectable.

  • Short persistence → assumption holds
  • Extended persistence → assumption fails
Binary Boundary

What breaks the assumption

Pass: No detectable infectivity beyond the assumed short window (e.g., ≤24 hours).

Fail: Detectable infectivity persists beyond that window on any surface under ordinary conditions.

Corrected Interpretation

Time is a variable, not a constant

Surface safety cannot be defined by fixed decay timelines. It must account for variability across materials and environments.

Scope Limitation

What this does and does not claim

  • Does evaluate persistence duration under defined conditions
  • Does not define transmission risk
  • Does not establish policy or behavioral recommendations
  • Does not generalize across all pathogens or environments
Invariant

A risk is not gone because time has passed—it is gone when viability is gone.

Time-based assumptions are proxies. Only measured loss of viability defines true decay.

Status: Final · Immutable